Metrics Ventures Market Watch: Continued Chaotic Consolidation

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Author: Metrics Ventures

Metrics Ventures December Market Overview and Commentary

1/ As 2025 is nearly coming to an end, first of all, happy holidays to all MVC friends! Looking back, 2025 has been a cold year for crypto investments, with annual returns ranking at the bottom in the dollar market. This is mainly due to the collapse in Q4. As the year ends, we hope everyone can take advantage of the market lull to rest more and regroup for a stronger start next year.

2/ The market movements over the past month haven’t shown anything particularly worth analyzing. The market remains in a dead, chaotic state with no vitality. Trading volumes on CEX and NYSE continue to shrink, volatility is converging with increased intensity, and the exchange of chips within the current narrow range is nearing its end. What’s more frustrating for high-frequency traders is that this shrinkage shows no signs of reversal in the short term. The so-called “market manipulation” and “flash crashes” are likely to be the main themes in the near future. This period might be better suited for rest and reflection, allowing for more systematic thinking about the market.

Overall Market Conditions and Market Trend Review and Commentary

Compared to the crypto market, the main focus in the capital markets over the past month has been on precious metals. The anticipated Q4 trend within the circle has indeed occurred, but it has been overshadowed by silver—currently, the monthly trading volume of silver on the Shanghai Silver Exchange alone has exceeded 75 trillion RMB. The options positions on COMEX are several times the actual market inventory. This frenzy is reminiscent of the crypto markets in 2020-2021. Meanwhile, the sluggish state of Bitcoin is quite lamentable. Specifically, since October, the relative price strength between gold and Bitcoin has broken out of the long-term downtrend since 2020, making the rotation of high-value funds more visually apparent.

Figure: Gold and Bitcoin Price Exchange Rate

Of course, there are some positive signals in the market. MSTR maintaining its position in the NASDAQ 100 index, the Fed Chair’s clearer guidance, and the potential crisis of the AI bubble all support the outlook for 2026. Standing at the end of 2025, we still believe this is a continuation of the consolidation that began at the end of 2024. During this period of wide-ranging price fluctuations, there will be ups and downs, and now is the time to conserve strength and prepare.

This month’s report is relatively brief, which aligns with our theme of taking a rest. Once again, happy holidays to everyone, and see you in 2026!