2025-12-29 23:20:38

Regarding the impact of Lighter token TGE on its ecosystem price, many people are discussing this topic.

From the data, Hyperliquid's FDV is approximately 25 billion. So the question is— as a DEX project in the same track, what percentage of Hyperliquid's valuation should Lighter be reasonably valued at? 10%? Higher?

This involves several core variables. First are the differences in actual operational data between the two projects—trading volume, user base, ecosystem carrying capacity. Second is the market's sentiment and expectations for the new token launch—TGE usually brings short-term supply shocks and price volatility. Third is the valuation level of the entire DEX sector under the current macro environment.

Some are optimistic, reasoning that Lighter's launch can attract incremental capital and improve the ecosystem token economy. Others are bearish, believing that the new supply release will suppress prices. What’s your view? The short-term and medium-term logic might be completely different.

LIT-41,41%

HYPE-0,31%

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AirdropHunterKing

· 4h ago

Bro, I've had my eyes on Hyperliquid with a valuation of 25 billion for a while. It would be great if Lighter could get a 10-20% discount on the valuation. But the key is how many people are ready to buy in on TGE day. Gas fees are insanely high, and I don't want to end up losing money in the end.

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WinterWarmthCat

· 15h ago

Hmm... it's the same old problem again. It feels like every new project needs a hype before TGE. Hyperliquid's 25 billion market cap seems outrageous to me. What's the current data for Lighter? Can the trading volume support it? TGE is just a supply shock; short-term dumping is inevitable. This rule has never been broken. The real question is, who accumulated before TGE? Who is holding the bag? I don't want to hear any talk about incremental funds. I'm used to being cut.

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WalletWhisperer

· 15h ago

Lighter only accounts for 10% compared to Hyper? This guy is overthinking it. Who still evaluates based on fundamentals nowadays? --- TGE hitting the market will inevitably cause a dump; this rule has never changed. New coins are always like this. --- The real question is whether there is big capital stepping in; otherwise, a beautiful valuation is pointless. --- In the short term, whether it dumps or not; in the medium term, whether there is genuine trading volume; in the long term, forget about it haha. --- Instead of obsessing over valuation ratios, it's better to watch who will dump wildly during TGE; that's the real core. --- Can Lighter mobilize incremental funds? I just don't see it. Basically, it's just turnover of existing holdings. --- Supply shocks are definitely there; the question is at what price level it stabilizes, and that really tests the fundamentals.

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ServantOfSatoshi

· 15h ago

Honestly, there will definitely be a dump on TGE day, which is standard procedure. Lighter wants to value Hyperliquid at 10% of the valuation? Let's see the trading volume first. Short-term bearishness is inevitable; it all depends on whether it can hold up later.

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rug_connoisseur

· 15h ago

Honestly, after TGE, there's a high chance of a dump... Once the supply is released, who would still dare to buy in? I think the 25 billion in Hyperliquid is overestimated, and I didn't expect Lighter to aim for about 10%. There are short-term arbitrage opportunities, it just depends on who reacts faster. Breaking the peg is a common operation; I think very few are truly focused on the long-term. This round of DEX funding is generally overhyped; just waiting to see the joke.

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