This week, the crypto market faces two "earthquakes"!

The Federal Reserve's December policy meeting minutes are about to be released, and Trump is set to finalize the new Fed Chair in the first week of January. These two events directly impact the liquidity outlook for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. The market is already extremely tense.

First, let's look at the meeting minutes. Last December, when the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, there were already dissenting voices within the Fed, and the number of dissenters has increased to two. Investors want to know—what is their true stance on future rate cuts? This is crucial because the impact of that December rate cut was very intense: the crypto market surged then plunged, with 114,600 traders forced to liquidate within 24 hours, and Bitcoin's short-term volatility exceeding $2000. If this time's minutes signal a hawkish stance, similar intense volatility could occur again.

Next, let's consider the chair candidate. Former Fed Governor Waller and White House economic advisor Hassett are currently the top contenders. Trump has explicitly expressed a preference for candidates who support "1% or even lower rate cuts," and has even asked the next chair to consult him on decisions. This directly threatens the Fed's independence. Interestingly, Hassett is a radical dove advocating for significant rate cuts; Waller, though more hawkish, has promised to cooperate with rate cut demands. In other words, whichever candidate is chosen could potentially release liquidity benefits to the crypto market.

But there's another issue—the market's expectations for rate cuts are actually quite pessimistic. CME's "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 18.8%, with an 81.2% chance of holding rates steady; by March, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 46.9%, and a 50 basis point cut is just 8.5%. For the crypto world, expectations of easing have always been a key driver of market trends. But if the rate cut pace is slower than expected, it could fall into the "good news exhausted" trap, triggering a correction.

The current question is: who will ultimately become the Fed Chair—Waller or Hassett? Can the probability of a rate cut in March truly surpass 50%? Can Bitcoin rally to $120,000 on the potential easing policies?