2025-12-29 23:21:29

HYPE Coin's recent trend encapsulates an interesting contradiction: retail investor sentiment has reached an extremely optimistic level.

According to data from multiple leverage trading platforms, retail long positions currently account for over 75%, which is a quite extreme figure. Meanwhile, the price is approaching a long-term critical support level—the EMA99 moving average—around $26.127.

The issue lies in historical records. Looking back at the movements on the 28th and 29th, the main players have executed two clear "trap and quick exit" operations. Once this pattern was documented, retail enthusiasm has hit new highs again, making the situation delicate: when highly extreme bullish sentiment encounters a key technical support level, and the possibility of history repeating itself is evident, the market's turning point could be just around the corner.

From a technical perspective, if this long-term moving average is effectively broken, the subsequent downside could target $25.25, with a deeper support zone around $24.45. These are not just arbitrary numbers—they represent the actual accumulation points of long and short positions.

The essence of trading is a probability game. When retail long positions are so high and sentiment so extreme, the opposite force is often brewing. It doesn't necessarily mean a decline will happen, but this moment warrants extra caution. True traders need to stay calm during extreme emotions—neither blindly follow the hype nor recklessly short—and wait for a clear signal in the most probable direction.

This wave of market movement has reached a critical moment that requires close observation.

HYPE-0,57%

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HalfPositionRunner

· 19h ago

75% of long positions, isn't this just waiting for the main force to harvest? Is history about to repeat itself so quickly? --- Another round of诱多? I still need to wait and see, not following the trend this time. --- Support levels one after another, let's see how the main force plays it. --- Breaking the EMA99 line would be really troublesome, still need to hold it. --- Extreme optimism is actually the most dangerous time, I understand this principle. --- The套路 on the 28th and 29th is coming again? The main force's tactics are a bit too old. --- Half of the position first, take half out, anyway, just a little profit and then exit, don't be greedy at this time. --- Remember levels like 25.25 and 24.45, wait for signals before acting. --- When retail investors go crazy, it's often a turning point, and this time is probably no exception.

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NotSatoshi

· 19h ago

75% Long? The trap of enticing longs is back again. This time, retail investors really need to wake up. --- The main force is playing with fire, waiting for us to take the bait. --- EMA99 is about to break, it feels like it will drop below 25. --- It’s always like this; extreme emotions are often the most dangerous times. --- History repeats itself, but this time I don’t believe it. Reduce positions to preserve life first. --- Stay calm and observe. Don’t be driven by emotions. Wait until the signals appear.

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EthMaximalist

· 19h ago

75% Long? I'm tired of this pump-and-dump routine. Are they doing it again? --- The main force's move this time is really aggressive. Retail investors are still celebrating. --- Basically, it's a gamble on whether history will repeat itself, but I believe it will. --- Once the EMA99 line breaks, things will get serious. Be mentally prepared. --- Extreme emotions often signal a reversal. I understand it very well. --- Around $26 is really a trap. Don't be too greedy. --- When retail investors are this excited, I start to get cautious. That's a lesson learned. --- I've already marked the $25.25 level, just waiting. --- Instead of blindly following the trend, it's better to observe and adapt. If you can't see such obvious market signals, you should reflect. --- I've learned the main force's routine. Next time, I won't fall for it.

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MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 19h ago

75% long positions? This looks like a top signal to me. Are the major players about to start harvesting profits again?

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BrokenYield

· 19h ago

75% longs is literally textbook liquidation setup... smart money's been here before, retail's about to get schooled again ngl

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SolidityJester

· 19h ago

75% Long? Ha, that number sounds dangerous. The main players have already sharpened their blades. --- It's the same old trick of诱多. Can't retail investors learn? --- Wait, is the $26 line really that critical? Feels like any bearish candle could break it. --- The most annoying thing about probability games is that the probabilities themselves are also deceiving you. Who really knows what will happen in the next second? --- Forget it, I won't look anymore. The more I analyze in such times, the more anxious I get. Wait for the signals to appear. --- Extreme optimism paired with extreme fear. This market is just an emotional roller coaster.

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