The US stock market hits new highs, while the crypto market remains silent. What is the hidden behind this contrast?

It appears to be market rotation, but in reality, it is a systemic shift of capital. The Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle is far more than just fighting inflation—it is fundamentally a targeted liquidity withdrawal, raising risk premiums and gradually pushing hot money from high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) toward so-called "safe havens." The seven major tech giants have become the winners in this capital race, while the crypto ecosystem is like a fish pond drained of water, falling into a temporary silence.

Looking at BlackRock's push for a Bitcoin spot ETF. Many expect a surge after the ETF launches, but the reality gives a cold answer—the market did not react wildly. The reason is simple: large institutional players build positions patiently and slowly. Meanwhile, old custodians like Grayscale continue to sell, and the new ETF funds are being diverted and diluted. This process is called "cold start," like the muggy calm before a storm, with the real wave coming in the next phase.

When will financial institutions fully enter? It depends on two signals: the establishment of regulatory frameworks and the improvement of infrastructure. In the short term (1 to 2 years), major banks will first offer derivatives services to high-net-worth clients; in the medium term (2 to 5 years), once regulations are in place, custody and trading will become routine business; in the long term (after 5 years), crypto asset allocation may become as common as traditional funds. But don’t get it wrong— their goal is not to overthrow the existing financial order but to incorporate the crypto market into the system, completing an "absorption" rather than a "revolution."

This is the coming-of-age of the crypto market: from a wild-growth investment frontier to a cold, institutional allocation pool. The current lull is a transitional phase between the end of the old story and the arrival of new rules. When banks start queuing up to enter and the Federal Reserve shifts to a rate-cut cycle, that silent wave will drown all hesitators.