Very important update for $NVO stockholders

What’s happening with Novo Nordisk stock?
What does the stock expect in 2026?
And why do I still strongly bet on Novo Nordisk despite all the negative numbers?

The weight loss drug market in America is growing very rapidly, but over the past two years, Eli Lilly has managed to significantly outperform Novo Nordisk and take a large market share due to major issues faced by Novo in supply chains and manufacturing shortages.

Even the FDA temporarily allowed the entry of compound drugs that mimic Novo’s medications due to supply shortages, which led to Novo losing a large number of prescriptions!

In short: the US market is growing rapidly, but Novo did not benefit from this growth due to manufacturing shortages, while Eli Lilly was able to meet demand and capture all the market growth!

■September 2025
▪︎ Weekly prescriptions for weight loss drugs in America: 2.1 million prescriptions weekly
▪︎ Eli Lilly: 1.2 million prescriptions weekly
▪︎ Novo Nordisk: 876 thousand prescriptions weekly

Market share September 2025
Eli Lilly: 58%
Novo Nordisk: 42%

■September 2024
▪︎ Weekly prescriptions for weight loss drugs in America: 1.6 million prescriptions weekly
▪︎ Eli Lilly: 830 thousand prescriptions weekly
▪︎ Novo Nordisk: 800 thousand prescriptions weekly

Market share September 2024
Eli Lilly: 50%
Novo Nordisk: 50%

The bottom line is that the US market is expanding, but Eli Lilly is eating into Novo’s market share and capturing all the market growth!

This is why Novo Nordisk stock is trading at a very low valuation, and the market sees Novo as losing the battle in the US market forever!

( I am talking about the US market because it accounts for 57% of Novo’s revenue, the global market situation is different )

Even after the FDA announced Novo’s oral weight loss drug, the market did not react strongly because the oral weight loss treatment will open a huge market for Novo, especially since Eli Lilly currently has no FDA-approved oral drug.

Why?

Because Eli Lilly’s oral drug is expected to receive FDA approval in early 2026, exactly in March!

Novo only has 4 months to dominate the market before Eli Lilly’s drug enters, and the market prices this as only a temporary advantage for Novo!!!

Why do I bet on Novo Nordisk?

First: The stock is very cheap and priced as if Novo will lose the battle forever, even though Eli Lilly managed to capture a large market share due to supply chain issues and poor management of this area at Novo, not because of the effectiveness of their drugs!

Second: Novo’s oral drug has shown clear superiority
16% weight loss over 64 weeks, compared to Eli Lilly’s 12% weight loss over 72 weeks

Third: Novo’s oral drug will be available in the market in January 2026 and will face no competition until March, so I believe the Q1 results will be good, and any news about Eli Lilly’s delay in FDA approval for its oral treatment will benefit Novo!

Fourth: The traditional Wegovy injectable treatment showed an 81% growth rate compared to the previous year in the global market outside America!

Fifth: You will be surprised by the valuation now

Eli Lilly:
Market cap: $1 trillion
Net profit: $18.4 billion
P/E ratio: 53×
P/S ratio: 16×
Five-year average annual growth: 20%
Net profit margin: 31%

Novo Nordisk:
Market cap: $215 billion
Net profit: $16.3 billion
P/E ratio: 13×
P/S ratio: 4.3×
Five-year average annual growth: 19.9%
Net profit margin: 33%

I would have hesitated to invest if Novo Nordisk stock was at $70, but at $45, it is very cheap by all standards, a good stock to hold through 2026.

A great company targeting a huge market with solid financials and steady dividends, facing temporary issues that I see as temporary!

I consider it a safe and good investment at the $45 level!