#比特币价格走势 Policy storms are back again, this time targeting stablecoins and RWA. After reading this risk warning, I’ve reviewed the regulatory milestones of the past 12 years, and some patterns are indeed worth noting.

In 2013, banking services were banned, and Bitcoin dropped 30%, then remained silent for two years. In 2017, exchanges were shut down, causing a short-term drop to $3,000, but three months later it skyrocketed to $19,665. In 2021, mining farms were phased out, dropping from $50,000 to $35,000 in May, then rebounding starting in late August, eventually reaching $68,000.

Looking at this rhythm, each regulatory crackdown has a fierce short-term impact, but the long-term effects are diminishing. The key is that the market’s main players have changed—Wall Street ETFs and institutional holdings now dominate pricing power, while Chinese capital’s influence is waning.

My judgment: This round of risk warnings will impact sentiment, possibly triggering a wave of exits and panic selling, with USDT negative premium as a signal. But if we don’t see hard enforcement measures like CEX restrictions on domestic IPs or bans on C2C trading, historical experience tells us this is likely just the prelude to “bad news being fully priced in.”

However, to be clear—participating in legitimate trading within the policy framework is one thing; we’re discussing how to understand market logic, not encouraging violations. The real opportunities often appear during the most panic-stricken moments, provided you survive until then.