The 2026 New Year Market Spectacle Will Begin: Keep a Close Eye on Catalysts Like the Federal Reserve, Tax Reforms, and Options

2025-12-30 00:10:12

【Blockchain Rhythm】The OTC trading circle has been discussing a question recently—will the New Year market rally start early? Wintermute’s Head of Trading Jake O has given an answer: probably not.

His logic is very clear. Most institutional trading departments are in a wait-and-see mode this week, and the real shift will happen after January 1st. At that time, traders will re-enter the market with a “reset” mindset, and the market’s attention will shift from the inertia of year-end actions to a series of upcoming events.

How important are these events? Just look at the start-of-year schedule. The Federal Reserve Chair nominee will be announced soon, and the Supreme Court will also make a statement on tariffs. On the domestic policy front, the “Clarity Act” bill is entering the revision and review stage, and the SLR leverage ratio regulatory requirements will also be updated. There are also many crypto-related topics—MSCI will decide on the 15th whether to include new products in the crypto-related stock index, the FOMC meeting on the 28th will attract usual attention, and by the end of the month on the 30th, U.S. government funding will expire.

What’s more interesting are the timing points. All of this will gradually occur after the narrative of tax-loss selling ends, large-scale options expiration, and the accumulation of bearish positions. In other words, the market’s resilience and trading opportunities may be much greater than you imagine.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

0xSunnyDay

· 12m ago

Jake O's words are reliable; at the end of the year, no one is really trading, everyone is in holiday mode. Wait, has the Federal Reserve Chair been confirmed? That’s the real bombshell. All these events at the start of the year coming together—markets are going to go crazy. SLR updates, tariff statements, bill revisions... a barrage of intense news. The decision by MSCI on the 15th feels seriously underestimated; that’s the key. Lying flat at the end of the year, celebrating at the start—this is the rhythm, right? With so many catalysts stacked together, entering with a zeroing mindset? I think it will trigger a violent rebound.

View OriginalReply0

TokenVelocityTrauma

· 8h ago

I've heard about it for a long time, Wintermute guys never reveal their hand early... waiting until January 1st? Seems like it still depends on what the Federal Reserve says. --- Jake O said it's unlikely? I feel like institutions are secretly laying low... pretending to be dead this week, then exploding at the beginning of the month. --- SLR updates, tariff statements, MSCI decisions... these things come one after another, really exciting. Just worried that the market's reaction won't be as strong as expected. --- Re-entering with a zero-sum mentality? Basically, it's just finishing the New Year's Eve dinner and preparing to cut the leeks, same old story. --- The key is still the Federal Reserve Chair, all those rules sound explosive, but the only one who can really move money is this one. --- Wait, MSCI decision on the 15th... we've been burned by this before, hope this time it’s not just smoke and mirrors. --- Are institutions all watching? Then retail investors entering now would just be taking the bait, better to hold back a bit.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropNinja

· 9h ago

Wait, Jake O said it's basically not going to happen? So the purchases I made these days were for nothing... Hmm, starting fresh with a reset on January 1st sounds good, but then I’ll have to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve, tariffs, and all that annoying stuff. So frustrating. The MSCI decision on the 15th feels like the real troublemaker. We'll see then.

View OriginalReply0

BearMarketNoodler

· 9h ago

Jake O, I've heard this set of arguments too many times. Are institutions all waiting for the 1st? What about retail investors? They've probably already been on the runway. Wait, the Federal Reserve Chair, SLR updates, MSCI crypto index... Can all these really trigger a market explosion? Or are they just empty hopes? Trust me, most people who are buying the dip now will regret it later. After the 1st, those who need to wake up will wake up. Don't pin your hopes on a specific date.

View OriginalReply0