#预测市场 The recent data changes in the prediction market remind me of the market reactions before the 2016 election. The probability for Wash to win surged from 7% to 48%, while Haskett's dropped from 85% to 39%. Such a rapid reversal indicates that the market is re-pricing a core risk—the power struggle behind the Federal Reserve Chair appointment.

Looking back, each transfer of monetary policy power has profoundly influenced subsequent market cycles. After the 2008 financial crisis, Bernanke's hawkish shift; in 2018, Powell's tightening expectations; and this year’s repeated swings on rate cuts—all are not isolated events. Today’s sharp increase in Wash’s probability essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of a "pro-Trump, possibly more dovish" policy stance.

Historically, when the power circles question a candidate—like now questioning Haskett’s "closeness to the President"—it often means the market needs further adjustment. The endorsement from JPMorgan’s Dimon is also significant; such a level of voice carries real weight in Washington. The consistent reversal across both prediction platforms tells me this is not noise but a genuine probability re-evaluation.

The next key point to watch is whether Trump’s final statement this Friday will again shift market expectations. The choice of Federal Reserve Chair is often a crucial anchor for market trends over the next 12-24 months. History shows that such power changes are never just political news; they directly determine the long-term direction of asset prices.