The Federal Reserve minutes are about to be released, with market focus on internal disagreements over the rate cut direction. Meanwhile, the selection of the new Fed Chair has also become a key variable influencing policy direction. These two signals intertwine, posing a dual impact on the crypto market.

History provides clues. During the last rate cut cycle, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, with 110,000 traders getting liquidated. If the Fed minutes release hawkish signals this time, the confrontation between bulls and bears could intensify. More notably, the candidates for the chair position each have distinct characteristics—some are aggressive dovish advocates for easing policies, while reformists lean towards prudence. However, the market generally expects that whoever takes the helm will likely align with the rate cut trajectory. Once liquidity is unleashed, crypto assets tend to be among the first beneficiaries.

But reality is nuanced. CME data shows that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in March is only 8.5%, indicating that market expectations for easing are not optimistic. The old routine of "good news is exhausted" may play out again, so caution is needed.

Interestingly, silver has recently experienced sharp volatility, and although gold was mispriced, this has reinforced Bitcoin’s role as "digital gold" and a safe haven. Central bank policies worldwide are quietly shifting; signals of rate hikes from countries like Japan suggest that the next big cycle in the crypto market may not be in the 2025 halving but could point to a macro policy turning point in 2026.

For investors, the strategy is clear: observe high-heat assets, but core assets require patience and careful positioning. Whether Bitcoin can break through the $120,000 mark depends on whether this policy minutes can break the market’s expectation deadlock.