Lately, I've been riding high in the stock market—The seven giants of the US stock market are taking turns, and the S&P 500 has already approached 7,000 points, hitting a new all-time high. In contrast, Bitcoin? Stuck in the 85,000 to 90,000 range, as if frozen in place. This isn't bad luck behind it, but a big chess game played by institutional giants.

First, let's look at the actions of the Federal Reserve. In December, they cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 3.5%-3.75%. Theoretically, money is flowing out, and the stock market has indeed enjoyed the benefits—this year's increase is close to 18%. But what about crypto? Still waiting for the benefits of rate cuts to gradually seep in, it takes time.

Next, let's consider the true attitude of institutions. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has absorbed over $25 billion this year, ranking 6th among global ETFs. This number looks impressive, but recently, there has been a net outflow. Grayscale's GBTC is also continuously selling off. Some think they are bearish, but that's not the case. They are not chasing the thrill of skyrocketing gains; what they want is to steadily put Bitcoin into pension accounts—treat it as digital gold. This is a long-term accumulation rhythm.

Regulation is also changing. At the start of 2025, the US OCC signaled clearly: banks can legally custody and trade crypto assets. In the short term, this makes it easier for institutions to play derivatives. In the medium term? Custody services will become standard. In the long run? Retail investors buying crypto will be as casual as buying stocks. But it’s important to understand that banks are not here to cause chaos; they are here to "bring under control"—to incorporate this market into the formal financial system.

Ultimately, the crypto market is undergoing an identity shift: from a pure casino to an asset class recognized by institutions. The current lull is just that awkward moment of changing clothes. Once banks are fully online and the Fed’s rate cut wave continues, the next bull market will arrive quietly—bulls won't even notice they’ve been overwhelmed. This stage requires patience; don’t be scared by the calmness of the present.