#预测市场 Seeing this news about prediction markets, I am reminded of an old story. In 1905, people were worried about manipulation in the betting market, with media flooding reports of price fluctuations, which ironically made it easier for people to be swayed. Over a hundred years later, under a different name called prediction markets, the core issue remains the same—when information becomes muddled, people's minds tend to follow the trend.

What alarms me most is this kind of "half-truth, half-fake" manipulation. The real challenge isn't fully controlling the market, but creating enough chaos in a moment to make everyone unsure of whom to trust. A large order pushes the price up, media follow suit with reports, then the price drops back down, but the damage to public opinion has already been done. Just like the example in 2024, where a normal operation by a French investor was interpreted as "foreign interference."

My advice is simple—don't be scared by price fluctuations. Prediction markets are valuable, but they are not tools for entertainment. Choose markets with good liquidity and active trading for reference, compare polls and other information sources, listen more, watch more, and judge less. More importantly, maintain your independent thinking—don't let any single signal dictate your decisions. Markets will have noise, information will be disturbed, but as long as you stay calm, you won't be misled by short-term waves. In the long run, genuine fundamentals will eventually surface.