#预测市场 I recently read an article about prediction markets and realized how complex this field actually is...😅

So prediction markets can also be manipulated? I used to naively think that these markets simply reflected prices based on real information. But after looking into it, I found out that some people might try to boost the odds of certain candidates through large trades, and there are even historical records—like the 1916 US election, where the Democratic Party claimed that betting markets were manipulated. In 2024, there was also an incident where someone placed large bets on Trump on Polymarket, although it was later revealed to be French investors, which indeed raised concerns about manipulation at the time.

But what's even more interesting is that the article says manipulating prediction markets is actually much more difficult than it seems. Studies have shown that even if someone tries to push prices up, other traders will quickly arbitrage to bring the price back to normal levels. So relying solely on price manipulation to directly influence election outcomes might have minimal effect...

However, there's a concern that makes me a bit anxious: when these market prices are widely reported, they could influence voters' psychology. Some might follow the trend and support the candidate who looks likely to win, or feel that their supported candidate is a sure thing and thus become lazy about voting. Although research shows this impact is small, it’s still worth paying attention to.

It seems that prediction markets themselves are a really cool concept—using real money to aggregate information—but they require stricter regulation and transparency to prevent abuse. Media coverage should focus on markets with active trading and good liquidity, as this increases the cost of manipulation and makes the data more trustworthy. I’m quite looking forward to how this field will develop!