Every year during the New Year’s Eve moment, while traditional financial markets go into rest, the crypto world is quietly surging. This seemingly ordinary date hides many intriguing market logics behind it.

Looking at data from the past five years — Bitcoin has a 70% chance of significant volatility within three days before and after New Year’s Day, with an average fluctuation of up to 8.5%. This is far from a coincidence. In 2017, Bitcoin surged 12% within three days of New Year’s; by 2022, it plummeted 9.3% during the same period. This stark contrast itself speaks volumes.

Why does this happen? The logic is actually simple. When New Year’s holiday arrives, traditional financial institutions collectively take a break, and the efficiency of fiat currency inflows and outflows drops sharply, causing market liquidity to tighten suddenly. It’s like giving big players an opportunity — they only need to deploy relatively small chips to create astonishing price swings in this “liquidity trough.” Meanwhile, retail investors are either on vacation or distracted by family matters, greatly reducing market attention, which amplifies the volatility effect.

In plain terms, it’s just how it is. Liquidity on the supply side fractures, demand-side attention disperses, and big players seize the opportunity. The crypto market operates 24/7, but the logic behind this special time period isn’t much different from traditional finance rules.