2025-12-30 01:23:22

According to the Kondratiev wave theory, we have entered the depression phase of the fifth cycle in 2020. Looking back at the previous four cycles: the recovery period(1982-1991), the prosperity period(1992-2008), the recession period(2009-2019), and the current depression phase is expected to end around 2030—although some studies suggest it could extend until 2034 or end earlier in 2026.

But more importantly, the depression phase itself is divided into two shock stages. The first wave of shocks(2020-2022) mainly impacted the commodities sector, which everyone has experienced. What we should now be wary of is the second wave of shocks(2025-2027), which will directly target financial assets, especially dollar-denominated assets—the US stock and real estate markets.

2025 is about to pass, but the real test for US stocks has not yet fully arrived. Particularly the AI concept stocks, whose ecosystem has already expanded to a worrying extent. Just look at the giants like FAANG to see how inflated their valuations are. The root of the problem points to two companies: OpenAI and NVIDIA.

What is even more striking is the financing cycle they have formed: NVIDIA invested 100 billion into OpenAI, while AMD transferred 10-20% of its shares to OpenAI. Then OpenAI buys chips from NVIDIA and AMD or rents cloud services from Oracle. Meanwhile, Oracle continues to purchase hardware from AMD and NVIDIA—creating a self-reinforcing capital cycle that is running wildly. Each rotation in this cycle pushes up the valuations of these companies, but the sustainability of this model is questionable.

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LonelyAnchorman

· 23h ago

A typical capital self-sustaining cycle, and in the end, retail investors are the ones who foot the bill.

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ArbitrageBot

· 23h ago

This cycle is just ridiculous, lifting yourself up all by yourself.

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FallingLeaf

· 23h ago

Ha, this is the legendary capital self-sustaining cycle. Everyone knows it's only a matter of time before it crashes. --- The second wave of impact is here. The US stock market folks need to wake up. --- The FAANG players are now like balloons being blown up. No one knows when they'll pop... --- Wait, OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, Oracle—these main players are really engaging in "self-circulation," like mirror images, terrifying. --- Will the Kondratiev cycle be in 2026 or 2034? Never mind, my money is already gone. --- This financing chain looks ridiculous, each one hyping their own valuation. The bubble is about to burst, everyone. --- The US housing market is also going to suffer. It seems no one can escape the palm of the second impact. --- Capital has vividly turned itself into a Ponzi scheme, and this time the scale is truly massive.

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SchrodingerProfit

· 23h ago

This financing cycle gameplay is amazing, it's like you’re carrying your own sedan chair.

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HodlOrRegret

· 23h ago

Wow, this funding cycle is really just self-indulgence. Just waiting for the day it breaks the chain.

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SerumSquirter

· 23h ago

It's the same Kondratiev cycle rhetoric again, always sounding impressive, and then... it still drops when it drops. Regarding the AI chip cycle chain, I have to say, it's just capital boosting each other; whoever runs first wins. The US stock market bubble is huge, but retail investors always catch the last fall when it drops. Wake up. The valuations of FAANG are indeed outrageous; the game played by OpenAI and Nvidia won't last much longer. This is Keynes' beauty contest game; the last to take over the position is always us.

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