2025-12-30 01:24:50

【Waiting for a More Cost-Effective Entry Opportunity】

Recently, there have been two opinions about the future market. Some firmly believe that the bull market will continue until the first half of 2026, thinking this cycle will be extended. But I have a different view — before 2026, I really don’t want to move my coins.

You ask why? Simply put, there is no current coin whose price gives me the confidence to bet. Bitcoin has broken $90,000, a major exchange’s platform token is approaching $100, a large platform’s token is also over $800. With these prices in front of me, I am even more cautious. Which one is worth betting on? Which one can I start with? As for altcoins, I don’t even bother looking.

So whether it’s a bull or bear market right now is no longer the key for me. The core issue is only one — cost performance.

My bottom line is very clear. Either mainstream coins undergo a significant correction: Bitcoin drops below $50,000, a major platform token falls below $50, a large platform token drops below $500. Or let the market consolidate sideways at this level for more than a year, using time to digest this overvaluation. Unless one of these two conditions is met, I won’t enter the market.

To be honest, current prices do not match the value. Maybe they will match in two years, but right now, they don’t. These coins are at risk of being cut in half at any time. When the next cycle comes and prices rise again, their fundamentals might be more solid, and support more stable.

Of course, this conclusion only applies to coins that are truly valuable. What about those altcoins? No matter how low you buy them, they could still crash another 90%. Instead of betting on probabilities, it’s better to hold onto your chips and wait for that truly worthwhile moment.

BTC1,12%

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RebaseVictim

· 15h ago

Well, this guy's patience is truly impressive. I don't have that kind of resolve. Waiting for BTC to drop below 50,000? Then let's first get some popcorn ready. Entering now is purely a gamble on luck; it's better to wait for the right opportunity. It's better to miss out than get liquidated; I understand this logic. Altcoins are indeed a gambler's playground; stepping back is definitely the right move. The cost-performance ratio is spot on; the current prices are indeed a bit outrageous. HODLing coins and waiting for a dip requires mental preparation; not everyone can endure it. Bitcoin over 90,000 is really unsustainable; this entry price is just ridiculous.

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LiquidityWizard

· 15h ago

actually, the risk-adjusted valuation metrics here are statistically significant... btc at 9x valuation multiples? nah fam, fundamentally speaking that's just asking to get liquidated. theoretically you could wait for the 50% drawdown but empirically speaking, given historical data, the opportunity cost of holding cash might exceed the upside. idk man, the probability distribution feels off.

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BlockchainDecoder

· 15h ago

From a technical perspective, this valuation logic is indeed solid. Data shows that the PE multiples of mainstream coins have already deviated significantly from historical averages, and the risk-reward ratio is clearly unbalanced. --- Research indicates that this phenomenon of "serious divergence between price and value" occurs before each cycle peak. It is recommended to compare and analyze with historical candlestick charts. --- BTC at $90,000 and platform coins at $100... In simple terms, it's a game of high-position bagholders; there's no need to force it. --- It is worth noting that it takes more than a year of sideways movement to digest valuation bubbles. This logic can be verified through on-chain data and MVRV indicators. --- Instead of chasing highs, it's better to keep risk capital and wait for BTC below $50,000. This is not pessimism; it's basic probability knowledge. --- Avoid altcoins altogether; if the fundamentals don't support them, they could fall another 90% even after a 90% drop. Pure gambling. --- In summary, cost-performance ratio is the real indicator. The current market seems more driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals, so we need to wait for the market to become more rational.

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PositionPhobia

· 15h ago

Oh my, this price really can't hold anymore. Better to stay flat and wait for opportunities. Can you really say BTC 90,000? I'll just keep eating dirt. When the cost-performance ratio is gone, it's gone. Instead of chasing highs, better to get a good night's sleep. There's really nothing to buy into at this point. Better to wait and see. At this price, still dare to buy? I don't have that courage.

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GmGnSleeper

· 15h ago

Honestly, there's really nothing good to buy the dip at right now; waiting around will just get you the same price.

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SolidityStruggler

· 15h ago

Oh my, this price is really outrageous. I'm also waiting, no rush. Still daring to chase after BTC at 90,000? Laughing to death. Isn't that just taking the fall guy? Hold onto your coins and wait for the right time. That's the real strategy. A waist-cut? It's more about being sober than discouraged. Indeed, don't touch shanzhai projects; most likely you'll lose everything. Cost performance is the key indicator, no room for negotiation. Sideways trading for a year? I can wait; anyway, there's nothing good to buy.

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