The prediction market landscape just shifted. Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket in weekly trading volume—$2.3B versus $1.2B. More notably, this marks Kalshi's first time closing a week above $2B threshold.

But here's what matters: this isn't about superior prediction algorithms. It comes down to two things—liquidity depth and operational infrastructure.

The catalyst? Two structural advantages accelerated this climb. First, TRON integration opened the floodgates. Cheap deposits via USDT/TRX pairs removed friction for users. Transaction costs plummeted. Capital flowed in easier.

Second, sports became the volume engine. Unlike political or economic prediction markets that attract niche participants, sports betting scaled the user base fast. Broader appeal, higher turnover, sustained liquidity.

The takeaway: in prediction markets, raw prediction quality takes a backseat to execution basics. Rails matter. Deposit channels matter. User accessibility matters. Kalshi nailed all three.