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A contrarian opportunity just surfaced. New market launches in 2027—crowd positioning exceeds $2B, but I'm playing the opposite direction.
Here's the setup:
**Primary position**: FDV under $3B cap. The crowd's overextended; asymmetric risk sits on the downside.
**Hedge layer**: "No Launch in 2025" derivative. Time's critical—we're at Dec 29th. If the narrative stalls, this position pays.
It's not about predicting the launch. It's about capturing mispricings when consensus gets too comfortable. The market's locked into one scenario; I'm hedged for the alternative. Two directional views, one portfolio.