The 4-year cycle of Bitcoin is an illusion... TechDev emphasizes the global economic cycle

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: “Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is an illusion”… TechDev emphasizes the global economic cycle Original Link: The key driver moving Bitcoin(BTC) price is not halving or a fixed ‘4-year cycle’ but the global economic cycle, according to a new analysis. Technical cycle analyst TechDev(TechDev) stated through an X(formerly Twitter) post, “Bitcoin bull markets have always coincided with global economic rebounds,” pointing to the ISM manufacturing index as a key leading indicator.

Let’s simplify things.

The 4-year cycle was only the 4-year cycle because the last three business cycles were approximately 4 years.

The global business cycle has always driven Bitcoin. When it peaked, Bitcoin peaked. When it reversed from the bottom, Bitcoin went parabolic. Even the shapes of…

“The 4-year cycle is just a result”… Bitcoin as a function of the economy

TechDev argued that “the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin is not fundamental but a result.” He explained that the last three global economic cycles coincidentally repeated roughly every 4 years, and during this process, Bitcoin also followed the same rhythm.

He said, “When the global economic cycle peaks, Bitcoin also peaks, and when it rebounds from the bottom, Bitcoin surges,” adding, “The shape of the price curve even resembles economic indicators.”

The ‘explosive rise’ and stagnation distinguished by the ISM 50 line

TechDev presented the ISM Manufacturing Index(ISM) as a key indicator for economic assessment. The ISM index is a well-known indicator that divides economic expansion and contraction at the 50 mark.

He explained, “Over the past three years, the ISM has not exceeded 50, indicating either a minimal mini-cycle or a phase of stagnation,” and analyzed, “Because of this, the cryptocurrency market has not shown parabolic rises regardless of halving events.”

In other words, the strong rise of Bitcoin is not due to halving itself but predicated on entering an economic expansion phase.

Reasons why this cycle could be longer

He also raised the possibility that this cycle might be longer than previous ones. TechDev cited changes in the structure of U.S. Treasury bonds as the reason.

He said, “The main reason for the roughly 4-year cycle in the past was the refinancing cycle of U.S. debt,” and explained, “However, during COVID-19, the sharp drop in interest rates extended the average debt maturity by about 1.5 years.”

Accordingly, the economic cycle could be extended by about 1.5 years compared to previous cycles, which also suggests that Bitcoin’s cycle could be longer.

“The signals we see now are not the end but the beginning”

TechDev commented on the future outlook, stating, “The ‘green signals’ indicating Bitcoin’s strength have always moved in tandem with the ISM, and recently, they have even led it.”

Currently, these signals are showing a clear rebound from a long-term bottom, and he described this as “not the end of a bull market but a movement at the start.”

He particularly emphasized that these changes are observed on monthly and quarterly charts rather than short-term charts, adding, “Data from the past 15 years suggests that the cryptocurrency market is entering the next phase.”