#以太坊投资机会 Seeing the data that CEX net outflows of 69,300 ETH in the past 24 hours, with Coinbase Pro leading outflows of 72,900 ETH, my first reaction is not excitement but increased vigilance.

Such large-scale outflows often correspond to two situations: one is smart money quietly accumulating, and the other is retail investors cutting losses at high levels. The key is to see who is actually flowing out. As the main gateway for institutions, this level of outflow from Coinbase needs to be taken seriously—perhaps someone is positioning, or panic sentiment is spreading.

But don’t be fooled by surface data. Having been on the chain for so many years, I’ve seen too many claims that "large outflows are a bottom signal," only to buy in and get trapped badly. The focus is not on how much is flowing out, but on the actual price position of ETH and the macro background. If the outflow is near previous highs, be even more cautious—it could be market makers shaking out and distributing.

An increase in the concentration of holdings is another signal to watch carefully. The higher the concentration, the greater the potential for price manipulation, and the more violent the decline can be. Instead of guessing market trends based on on-chain data, ask yourself a few questions: What are the current fundamentals of ETH? What important events are coming up? Where is your cost basis?

Value investing is not about chasing risks but staying clear-headed amid chaos. Enter the market when it’s appropriate, but only if you understand why you’re doing so, not just blindly following inflows and outflows of others.