When is it truly worth bottom-fishing #ETH ?

In our previous on-chain data analysis, we observed:
Large funds are significantly increasing their ETH positions in the $2700–$3100 range.
So the question is—
Should retail investors follow?
If it’s #BTC , I would be more willing to consider.
But with ETH, caution is necessary.
The reason is simple:
ETH’s chip structure is not the same as BTC’s.
Unlimited supply
Large amounts of early profit-taking chips have accumulated
Structural support is not solid enough
Consensus strength is insufficient to lock in excess supply long-term
Whales can withstand volatility, retail investors cannot.
Therefore, the conditions for bottom-fishing ETH must be more stringent.
I break down the “Is it worth bottom-fishing ETH” question into four dimensions.
1. Sentiment: LTH must first experience pain
Look at a key indicator: LTH-NUPL (Long-term Holder Unrealized Profit/Loss)
LTH-NUPL < 0
👉 means that long-term funds are overall at a loss
👉 not only retail investors are panicking, even the most patient are wavering
In such situations, risk-reward begins to truly improve.
Summary in one sentence:
A real bear bottom must first cause LTH to suffer.
📌 Current state:
LTH-NUPL ≈ 0.4 (far from the bottom)
2. Structure: Half of the chips must be in loss
The essence of structure is the supply-demand balance:
More profitable chips → greater selling pressure
More loss-making chips → reduced selling pressure, better value
Corresponding indicator: PSIP (Percentage of Profitable Supply)
ETH-PSIP < 50%
👉 More than half of circulating chips are in loss
👉 Historically, this often corresponds to phase or cyclical bottoms
📌 Current state:
ETH-PSIP ≈ 61.7% (profit chips still dominate)
3. Cost: Price must surpass the main force’s cost line
Price isn’t the only answer at the bottom,
but relative price to the main force’s cost is very critical.
I categorize whales into three groups:
1k–10k ETH
10k–100k ETH
100k ETH and above
When the price is below the average cost of these three main groups simultaneously,
it’s considered “cost-effective” for retail investors.
📌 Current key cost reference:
1k–10k group: $2260
100k group: $2599
Currently, the price has not fully suppressed the main force’s costs.
4. Overall momentum: Is the market entering a defensive state?
The last indicator is a comprehensive one:
ETH Market Momentum Score (0–6 points)
It combines:
On-chain
Behavior
Sentiment
When the score < 1 (deep purple area):
👉 Upward momentum almost completely disappears
👉 The correction shows “structural recession” features
👉 Defense > Offense
📌 Current state:
Comprehensive score = 2 (not yet extreme)
Final conclusion (key point)
Because ETH’s supply structure, consensus strength, and chip stability are clearly weaker than BTC’s,
the bottom-fishing standard must be more rigorous.
My principle is simple:
Only consider probing for positions if at least 2 conditions are met →
Only consider increasing positions if 3 or more conditions are met →
Current stage: none of the four conditions are satisfied.
The only purpose of this framework is:
👉 To be more friendly to retail investors.
Institutions:
Unlimited bullets
Rich tools
Can tolerate long-term paper losses
Retail investors:
Limited funds
High emotional costs
One mistake could mean exit
We don’t need to buy at the lowest point,
just at a position where the “win rate is clearly in our favor.”
Patience itself is a form of Alpha.