#预测市场 The pace of new listings during major project weeks is indeed intense, but it's important to calmly analyze the balance between opportunities and risks.

By observing on-chain fund flows, the fundraising scales and FDV settings of several projects vary significantly, warranting in-depth comparison: Although Upheaval's 870% oversubscription seems highly popular, under the Bonding Curve pricing mechanism, the cost averaging effect for later entrants is obvious, and the true liquidity premium space depends on trading depth after TGE; Yield Basis, backed by Curve community endorsement and Egorov's influence, has the potential for a valuation jump from $50 million at the beginning of the year to hundreds of millions of dollars in FDV upon listing, but this depends on whether the returns from Bitcoin liquidity mining can be sustained; Limitless launched fundraising amid a declining trend in prediction market enthusiasm, with trading volume reaching $270 million, but previous controversy over wash trading has not been fully resolved, so participants should verify its actual active user data before engaging.

Goated was issued through Metaplex Genesis, with the advantage of pre-placed cash flow, which is a rare attribute for GambleFi projects. The fundraising cap of 4000 SOL is relatively restrained, and the initial FDV is estimated at $88 million. Projects with actual revenue like this have relatively controllable risks of falling below issuance price. Tea's open-source protocol concept is innovative, but since TGE is fully unlocked and lacks airdrop commitments, the distribution mechanism has raised community concerns that should be approached with caution.

Ultimately, it still depends on whether the project team has actual revenue support and continuous user growth data; focusing solely on fundraising scale and inflated valuation is a common trap that can lead to pitfalls.