The recent market conditions are indeed hard to interpret. Bitcoin surged to $126,000 in October, hitting a record high, then just over a month later, it fell below $94,000, essentially giving back all of this year's gains. Meanwhile, gold and silver are going crazy—gold prices approaching $4,550, and silver soaring 150% year-to-date, with many shouting "the era of safe-haven assets is coming." But frankly, this scene looks to me like a prelude to a big show. Whether the frenzy in precious metals can continue is uncertain, but the bottom of the crypto market may be brewing a reversal.

**Whales are playing two opposite strategies**

The more volatile the market, the more the actions of large holders reveal. Currently, two extreme types of whales coexist in the market, which is quite interesting in itself.

On one side are the "die-hard supporters." There’s a whale with an unrealized loss of over $44 million still holding onto ETH long positions, bought at an average of $3,147, and now ETH is below $3,000—yet they don’t blink. This behavior reflects a deep conviction in Ethereum’s long-term value, unaffected by short-term bloodshed.

On the other side are the "aggressive profit takers." Someone closed a short position with a 548% profit, cashing out $57 million; another "altcoin army leader" earned over $83 million in just two months. These whales are making money from volatility.

This split among whales precisely indicates that the market is at a crossroads. Shorts are betting on short-term fluctuations, while longs are betting on cycle rotations. Once the bubble in precious metals bursts, capital will flow from yellow and white metals into crypto assets—an almost unavoidable logic—history shows that after every frenzy in safe-haven assets, capital tends to rotate.

**The madness in precious metals is essentially a "safe-haven illusion"**

Gold prices soaring and silver skyrocketing seem to reflect rising risk aversion, but the underlying logic warrants scrutiny. In reality, this rally in precious metals is mainly driven by abundant liquidity and geopolitical expectations, but the sustainability of this driver has a ceiling. Once macroeconomic stability signals appear, the appeal of precious metals will quickly diminish—after all, gold doesn’t generate cash flow; its price is supported only by psychological expectations.

Crypto assets, on the other hand, are different. Although market sentiment is currently pessimistic, underlying infrastructure continues to improve, and institutional adoption is increasing. The crazy surge in precious metals is actually a window of opportunity for crypto accumulation.

**Why a reversal at the bottom might be brewing**

Look at a few signals: first, the divergence in whale holdings is widening, indicating that the market has not formed a consensus—this often occurs on the eve of a turning point. Second, although the fear index remains high, there are subtle signs of easing. Third, some institutions are quietly accumulating at low levels, which is a typical behavior at market bottoms.

Of course, this doesn’t mean an immediate reversal. The market may still oscillate within the bottom range for a while. But from a cyclical perspective, current pessimism exceeds the underlying fundamentals’ severity—this is often the last confirmation signal of a bottom.

**In summary, just one sentence**

The simultaneous frenzy in precious metals and decline in crypto markets won’t last forever. Capital will eventually reassess the risk-reward balance, and when that moment comes, accumulated crypto assets could trigger a turning point. The bottom may be closer than you think.