**Fix ≠ Reversal, the Truth of This Market Cycle**

Bitcoin's current state is actually quite interesting — it's not "about to take off," but more like "just fell and is catching its breath on the ground." The momentum from the previous decline hasn't fully released yet; the market is digesting, not sprinting.

You can feel this momentum just by looking at on-chain data. Short-term funds start to exit whenever there's volatility, while long-term holders who barely move their coins are quietly adding positions — the 30-day moving average is steadily rising, and the chips are quietly changing hands. Selling pressure is being absorbed, but the overall sentiment remains cautious; no one dares to be the first to call for a breakout.

**Funding cools down but is not out of control**

The funding rate makes this even clearer. It’s now fluctuating between +0.003% and +0.008%. The bulls are still in the saddle, but they’re no longer aggressively adding positions like before. Compared to the previous frenzy where funding rates soared to 0.10%–0.17%, now it’s like a warm pot — not hot, but not cold either.

In other words, this is the stage of "successful stop-loss but not yet regaining strength." If we don’t see obvious ETF fund inflows or short-term traders reactivating, the market will likely continue to oscillate and be frustrating. This is not a sign of reversal, just a recovery phase — not the time for celebration yet, but no need to panic either.