Let's analyze whether the 2026 crypto market will be a deep bear or a small bull from the perspectives of historical data and macro environment.

First, look at the bad news from K-line charts. If we purely follow past cycle patterns, 2026 should actually be a deep bear year. Consider the historical rhythm: in 2014, Bitcoin dropped 58% to correct the crazy run of 2013; in 2018, it fell 73%, cleansing the trash left by the 2017 ICO bubble; in 2022, it declined 64%, directly bursting the DeFi frenzy bubble of 2021. Applying this model, Bitcoin is likely to retest the $40,000 to $50,000 range in 2026. Altcoins will be even worse, facing a wave of 95% wipeouts.

But there is a key variable here.

The underlying market structure is undergoing an irreversible qualitative change. It’s no longer 2022; we now have ETF products and substantial institutional allocations. Even if the market declines, long-term funds like pensions and sovereign wealth funds will continuously make passive dollar-cost averaging at key support levels. This means Bitcoin will find it hard to repeat the sharp declines seen in 2022—if it does happen, it will be supported from below.

Now, look at the macro perspective. Both the 2018 and 2022 deep bear markets occurred during tightening cycles of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions, but the liquidity environment in 2026 will be completely different. U.S. debt interest payments are soaring; by 2026, projections suggest interest expenses alone will exceed the defense budget. What does this mean? It means the Treasury must maintain liquidity easing to roll over such a massive debt. In other words, there will be more money, not less.

There is also a deeper logic. The global fiat currency’s purchasing power is continuously shrinking, depreciating at 5% to 7% annually. This is not some conspiracy theory; it’s a stark reality. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties become especially valuable—not just as a hedge against centralization risks, but most critically, as an inflation hedge. In simple terms, the core foundation for the market consensus that Bitcoin can enter a slow or long-term bull run lies here.

So, will 2026 be a deep bear or a small bull? Historical cycles give you one answer, but market structure, macro liquidity, and monetary policy tell you another. How you choose depends on how you weigh these factors.