The first time I saw a platform launch a predictive trading on stablecoin de-pegging, at first glance there didn't seem to be anything wrong, but I always felt something was off—like someone insisting on a betting game about when Bitcoin will hit zero.

What's even more amusing is that a leading exchange just launched a USD1 stablecoin investment product with an annualized return of 20%, and then on the same platform, they listed a USD1 de-pegging prediction. This move is indeed a bit ironic.

However, after studying the rules carefully, I realized that this is not just a figment of imagination. The condition for predicting de-pegging is: during the observation period, at any moment, as long as the highest price of 24 consecutive 1-hour K-lines is below 0.98 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower), the market will settle as "Yes." It sounds quite strict, but considering the scale of that investment product, if after maturity a leading exchange doesn't follow up with renewal arrangements, the pressure from a concentrated sell-off could really push the price below 0.98. Such a scenario is not impossible.