#预测市场 Prediction markets are so interesting — data can lie, but probabilities are always being re-priced. Wash surged from 7% to 48%, Hasset dropped from 85% to 42%, and these reversals within just a few days are enough to catch many people off guard.

This essentially reflects information asymmetry and power struggles. Initially, the market was confident in Hasset, with a simple and straightforward logic — close relationships = higher certainty. But Trump’s comment, "Getting too close to the president can become a hidden danger," directly punctured that assumption. Interestingly, the same close relationship became a negative factor. What does this tell us? The market is correcting a cognitive error, but this correction process itself is very "gambler-like" — whoever can sniff out the signals of change faster will have an advantage before the probabilities are re-priced.

From a copy-trading perspective, prediction markets for such macro events are actually higher-risk games. Because decision-making power lies with individuals, unlike traders whose strategies can be validated through historical data. But if your copy-trading targets are those skilled at capturing shifts in policy expectations, then this moment is actually a good opportunity to observe their reactions — see how they adjust their positions, how they interpret the long-term impact of Wash’s rise, which is more valuable for learning than any post-event summary.

The win rate of prediction markets ultimately depends on information acquisition ability and decision speed. Candidates with higher probabilities may actually hide the greatest risks.