#战略性加仓BTC Why is the holiday market so volatile?

During the period from Christmas to New Year’s Day, major institutional traders are basically on holiday, and market trading volume is sluggish. In this environment, it doesn’t take much capital to play the game of sharp rises and falls; when liquidity dries up, it’s easiest to be exploited.

From a technical perspective, $BTC is really stuck below the $90,500-$91,000 range. Yesterday’s rally also stalled near the top and then turned around, indicating that there are indeed sellers pushing down from above. Conversely, buy orders at $86,000-$87,000 are quite solid, repeatedly stopping the decline there. Currently, it’s a tug-of-war within this range.

A positive signal comes from the 4-hour chart — each low point of the retracements is higher than the previous one, which is a bullish technical sign in a sideways market. It shows that although there is resistance to moving higher, buyers willing to buy at higher levels are accumulating. Additionally, the price has tested and stabilized above the trendline in the linear coordinate system, which is a short-term good sign.

But here’s a key detail: looking at the logarithmic coordinate system (which is more accurate for tracking long-term trends), the price is still some distance away from the upper long-term trendline. The real long-term resistance is there, and whether it can be broken later is a test.

On the weekly chart, the structure remains bullish; in the short term, it’s just volatility. In this kind of situation, buying on dips is much more reliable than chasing highs. Why? Because in this tug-of-war market, chasing the rally carries enormous risk — the price repeatedly hits resistance and gets rejected, and those who buy back in after a dip are likely to get caught. It’s better to buy in batches around $86,000-$87,000, set stop-losses properly, and consider the risk-reward ratio to be acceptable.