#2026年美国股市展望 12.30 Spot Precious Metals Market Overview

Gold prices have retreated from highs, entering a correction phase. Currently, the market is volatile and weak, and blindly chasing short positions can easily lead to traps. The best strategy is to wait for key support levels to stabilize before considering low-buying. As the year-end approaches, market liquidity is already tight, so be especially cautious of extreme volatility risks. Position sizes must be strictly controlled.

**Key Price Levels Overview**

Resistance levels: 4380 is the primary top today, followed by medium-term resistance at 4420, and 4480 is a tough resistance level.

Support levels are even more critical: 4300 is the bottom line; do not break it easily. If it falls below the strong support at 4280, caution is needed, as a deep correction may follow.

**Why Gold Prices Are Moving Down**

Recently, the Fed's rate cut expectations have cooled down—December's non-farm payroll data came out very strong, reinforcing market expectations of "cautious rate cuts." Additionally, the CME has increased margin requirements for gold futures, prompting institutions to close positions for profit, leading to a drop of over 4% in gold prices yesterday. There are also new developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation; drone attacks temporarily disturbed peace negotiations, but currently, there is no significant safe-haven capital inflow.

**Why Are Some Still Bullish**

Global central banks continue to buy gold, with China increasing holdings for 12 consecutive months, forming a long-term support level. Although the US dollar index has stabilized somewhat, it has not yet shown a trend of strengthening, which limits the downside space for gold. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the bullish pattern remains intact.

**Technical Analysis**

On the daily chart, prices are indeed pulling back from highs. The four-hour timeframe shows that bearish momentum has been released quite a bit, and the one-hour chart is showing signs of an oversold rebound. Today's expected rhythm: weak rebound in Asian session → further testing of support during European session → stabilization and upward movement during US session.

**Trading Strategies for Today**

For conservative traders: consider entering long positions in batches around 4290-4300, with stop-loss below 4275, targeting 4350→4380, maintaining a risk-reward ratio of 1:3.

For more aggressive traders: when rebounding to 4380-4390, take a small short position with a stop-loss above 4405, targeting 4340→4320.

If it breaks below 4280, pause and observe. If a rebound occurs back to 4300, consider adding short positions, with strong support at 4250.

Remember, the market is constantly changing. This is just the current analysis perspective; actual trading should be flexible and based on real-time market reactions.