#预测市场 I have recently been completely captivated by the concept of prediction markets 🤔 I read an article mentioning that public opinion in the AI era could be manipulated, and prediction markets face the risk of manipulation. It feels like this area is much deeper than I initially thought.

I used to naively believe that prediction markets were purely tools for aggregating information, but I found out that some people might deliberately spend money to manipulate prices and create public opinion. For example, to make a certain candidate appear more powerful, they might flood the market with funds to push up the price, then have news media report on this "hot topic," influencing ordinary people's perceptions... This is almost a chain reaction 😅

I noticed a key point mentioned in the article: While manipulating these markets is possible, it is costly and not easy to sustain. Because once the price skyrockets, smart traders will follow suit to arbitrage and bring the price back down, causing speculators to lose money. However, the problem is that even if the price only surges for a few minutes and gets reported in the news, it can already cause significant public opinion influence 😰

What worries me the most is that even if the manipulation fails, accusations of "being manipulated" can itself create a crisis of trust. In an era where AI is everywhere and public sentiment is restless, a single rumor can spread faster than the truth.

It seems that truly utilizing prediction markets without abuse requires cooperation among three aspects: news organizations reporting on high-liquidity markets with caution, trading platforms strengthening monitoring, and policymakers cracking down on manipulation. It feels like an ecological governance issue, not just a simple matter of whether to use or not. Can any experts help explain to newcomers the specific applications of prediction markets in Web3?