#比特币价格走势 Seeing the data on Polymarket, I feel a mix of emotions. The prediction probability dropping from a high point to 25% for a $100,000 forecast is itself a very interesting time slice.

I still remember the 2017 cycle, when every price breakthrough was accompanied by limitless imagination, with media, retail investors, and even some institutions racing to predict the next mythic number. By 2021, the script of history repeating itself became even more extreme. Looking back now, these predictions essentially reflect not where the price will go, but the market sentiment's temperature at that moment.

From historical records, a sharp decline in prediction probability often indicates two possibilities: either there has been a new cognitive shift in fundamentals, or the previous optimistic sentiment is being cleared out. The current 22% chance of dropping below $80,000 is worth pondering—while the market is betting on limited upside potential, the downside risk has not been fully priced in.

I’ve noticed a pattern: whenever the probability in prediction markets experiences such dramatic fluctuations, it often means the original consensus is breaking down. Similar situations occurred at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. After that cycle, we saw long-term sideways movement and structural adjustments.

The root cause of this cooling sentiment may take time to fully reveal. But one thing is certain: the process from extreme optimism to rational calm is often the most testing period for holders' resolve.