Bitcoin, ZEC, ASTER and other cryptocurrencies have performed remarkably recently. What is the driving force behind this? The answer may lie in the recently concluded Federal Reserve meeting.

Breaking news from Washington. The final FOMC interest rate decision for 2025 has been announced: a 25 basis point cut, with the federal funds rate range reset to 3.75%-4.00%. It seems cautious, but the voting data reveals intense internal debate—an 10:2 vote, with Milan pushing for a bold 50 basis point cut, while Schmidt firmly opposed, indicating a significant split.

The wording of the statement is even more intriguing: "slowing employment, rising risks"—this naturally raises the question: is there a hidden economic concern? Yet inflation remains stubborn on one side, while GDP is still strong (4.3%) on the other, leaving policymakers caught in a dilemma.

Market reactions best illustrate the issue. U.S. stocks rose slightly, but U.S. bonds and the dollar both strengthened. Investors seem confused by these conflicting signals—why does the dollar strengthen when rates are cut? This is a true reflection of the market digesting uncertainty.

A bigger story is unfolding globally. Central banks are collectively leaning towards easing; nine major central banks have cut rates by a total of 850 basis points this year. The Eurozone, UK, Australia, and New Zealand have followed suit one after another, only Japan diverging by raising rates to 0.75%, appearing somewhat isolated. Precious metals markets are boiling: silver soared 167% year-to-date, approaching the $79 mark; gold followed closely, hovering around $4,530. Behind these numbers is investors reallocating into risk assets.

The question is, what will happen in 2026? The answer is vague. The so-called "Fed Watch" indicator shows only a 21% chance of further rate cuts in January—meaning the rate-cutting trend may be slowing down. But Wall Street's forecasts vary wildly: Citi is optimistic about another 75 basis point cut, while Macquarie is betting on rate hikes—no one knows for sure.

The biggest uncertainty comes from personnel changes. Powell's term is about to end, and Trump is scouting for a new Fed chair. Candidates like Hasset and Waller have emerged, with market probabilities—Hasset's chance reaching 54%. Trump’s stance is clear: "I want a Fed chair who supports rate cuts." This statement alone could turn the market around overnight.

Looking ahead to 2026, global central bank policies may begin to diverge. The European Central Bank is expected to be the first to adjust, which could increase upward pressure on the dollar and put stress on emerging markets and cryptocurrencies. But at the same time, the long-term expectation of easing provides a foundation for risk assets.

For those paying attention to the crypto market, none of this is noise. Every Fed decision, every tone change, could be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back. Tonight’s calm may just be the prelude to the storm of 2026.