2025-12-30 03:23:02

Having been involved in crypto trading for many years, I have seen plenty of stories about overnight riches, as well as the harsh reality of accounts being wiped out. During the market rally early last year, my trading partner and I used a rhythm-based position rolling strategy, growing our initial capital from 13,000 USD to 850,000 USD. It wasn't based on tips or luck; it was purely the result of repeated market lessons and careful analysis.

Today, I want to distill the core logic of this method to provide a reference for those who truly want to survive long-term in the crypto market.

**Key Point 1: Only trade in trending markets; watch the sidelines during consolidation**

The most common pitfall for beginners is impatience, feeling they should always be in a position. I personally fell into this trap in November last year—BTC fluctuated between 35,000 and 38,000 for nearly two weeks. I couldn't resist entering the market three times, only to be stopped out repeatedly. My account, which started with 12,000 USD, was reduced to 8,000 USD, almost wiped out.

After that experience, I realized: most of the market time is sideways consolidation, with true trending moves accounting for less than 10%. The rolling position strategy only works in that 10% of trend phases. During consolidation, rolling positions is essentially just giving your money away.

**How to identify a major trend? Look for these three signals simultaneously**

First is trading volume. A sudden increase of over three times the usual volume on the 4-hour chart indicates genuine institutional activity. This is the most direct sign.

Second is a breakout of key levels. When the price decisively breaks through the upper boundary of the recent 15-day consolidation range, the least resistance direction is clear. At this point, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears begins to tilt.

Third is the alignment of futures open interest. When open interest rises along with price, it indicates that bullish momentum is genuinely strengthening.

When these three signals resonate together, it's time to act.

BTC0,42%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

6 Likes

Reward
6
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ChainWallflower

· 11h ago

1. 13,000 to 850,000? That number makes my heart itch, but honestly, I have deep experience with the rollercoaster of fluctuations—it's a bloody lesson. 2. The signal of volume expanding threefold is one I must remember. Previously, I got wiped out because I was blindly trading. 3. 10% trend market, 90% time wasted... That's probably why I always lose, haha. 4. Breaking key levels combined with holding volume—only when these three appear together do I dare to act? Looks like I need to be more patient. 5. Rolling in a choppy market = giving away money. I need to engrain this in my mind; it's too painful. 6. I've heard too many stories of going from 12,000 to 8,000; luckily, it’s not me... probably. 7. Looks like I need to learn the skill of "watching the show"—way better than blindly trading. 8. Only act when three signals resonate together—this is much more scientific than my guesswork. 9. These are things I’ve learned from repeated market lessons—that’s why these suggestions are valuable. 10. I think the key is still to judge the trend; otherwise, no matter how many methods I have, it’s all useless.

View OriginalReply0

PoetryOnChain

· 11h ago

13,000 to 850,000, this wave is really ruthless. But to be honest, most people still lose money after reading it, and mentality is the biggest pitfall. --- The most itchy hands in the shock are the worst, and I was cut like this. The key is to wait for that moment, not every day to eat. --- The three resonances of trading volume, breakthrough, and position... Sounds simple, but how many are right in practice? I feel like I still have to go through a few bloody lessons to really understand. --- Being able to continue to do it from 12,000 to 8,000 is a mentality that has won more than half of the people. Most of them have long since lay flat. --- The statement that the trend only accounts for 10% is heart-wrenching, which means that 99% of the time should be idle? This is too difficult for ordinary retail investors, who are idle. --- The methodology is fine, the problem is that greed and fear always alternate when implemented, and this is the real enemy. --- Last year's wave did have this kind of resonance signal, but at that time I was still struggling with whether to get on the bus, and by the time I reacted, it had doubled. --- To put it bluntly, rolling is to use a small account to practice the feel, once the trend comes, then press it with all your might? But if you make a mistake in judgment once, it's all gone.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCrier

· 11h ago

13,000 to 850,000? Bro, isn't this just a lucky bet? Rolling during volatility does indeed make money, but it’s not necessarily stable in a trend either. Wait, when your three signals resonate, is there really no false signal? Feels like it still depends on luck. I also experienced the move from 12,000 to 8,000, but how I turned it around afterward wasn’t explained in detail. This set of theories sounds very clear, but I don’t know if it still works in the current market.

View OriginalReply0

NFT_Therapy

· 11h ago

1. 13,000 to 850,000? That number sounds exciting, but those who truly want to survive understand that the 10% trend is the key to life. 2. Unreliable! I'm the kind of person who gets greedy during fluctuations, always getting swept out, it's frustrating. 3. The signal of volume tripling is indeed strong, but the problem is how to distinguish whether it's the main force or retail investors pushing it up. Who can tell for sure? 4. It's the same theory again—rising contract positions mean the bulls are strengthening? I remember many times it was just absorption before a direct drop. 5. That's right, but execution is the real challenge. Understanding these principles and actually controlling your hands are two different things. 6. The parameter of breaking resistance in 15 days is a bit arbitrary, as different assets and cycles vary so much. 7. Rolling positions sounds high-end, but it's really just stubbornly holding in a trend. How do you handle risk control? 8. That 8000U part was heartbreaking. I went through something similar last year. Now I spend a lot of time mentally preparing when watching the market. 9. The three signals resonating sounds perfect, but in practice, which one comes first and which comes later? Where does the timing gap occur for true resonance? 10. This methodology is essentially about following the trend, but when will the market truly start to rise? No one can be 100% sure.

View OriginalReply0

Rugman_Walking

· 11h ago

13,000 to 850,000? Man, your luck is really out of this world. I believe in your method, but I still think most people learning it would be a waste of time. Those still rolling in the volatility are all just leeks; I was also cut to the point of doubting life last year. I remember the signal of trading volume increasing threefold. Next time, I need to pay close attention and not just play by feel. Wait, can these three signals really appear at the same time? Or is it enough if two of them appear? Bro, are you still rolling now, or have you already cashed out? Ask about the strategy.

View OriginalReply0