The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released at 3 a.m. are often seen by the market as a barometer for the crypto market trend. But this logic itself is worth questioning.

On the surface, the minutes state "policy divergence is obvious." Translated, it means: some officials favor continuing to control inflation, while others are planning to cut interest rates. It sounds like paving the way for easing? Not necessarily.

**Cutting rates ≠ a signal to rescue the crypto sector**

When the Fed discusses rate cuts more actively, it often indicates potential issues in the economic fundamentals. Their priority has never been to rescue crypto assets but to stabilize the dollar system. In this framework, the crypto market is just a marginal variable.

The most important thing to watch is not "whether to cut rates," but **"how long will the cuts last"**.

If the minutes hint that rate cuts are only a short-term window and that high interest rate environments need to be maintained for a longer period, then what appears to be a bottom-fishing opportunity might actually be a deep trap. During periods of high interest rates, liquidity costs rise, and risk appetite for funds continues to decline.

**Don’t make decisions based on emotions**

The first few hours after the minutes are released are usually the most volatile. Large amounts of capital and opinions compete for price control, which is not the most rational time to enter.

A wiser approach: pay attention to the wording regarding "maintaining restrictive interest rate cycles." If the language is hawkish, it indicates that the tightening cycle will continue. At this point, it’s better to observe rather than chase the rally. In the crypto market, survival is often more important than quick profits.

The market is not afraid of the news itself but of losing judgment in the face of news. Every policy document tests participants’ perception of risk — are you making an investment decision or participating in an emotional gamble? The answer to this question often determines the final gains.