Recently, Bitcoin's performance has been quite predictable. From the sluggish state in November, to gradually stabilizing in late December, and then this wave of rebound, the pattern honestly isn't new—this kind of year-end market cycle has repeated many times with Bitcoin.

Why is it easier to rise at the end of the year? Essentially, it's a matter of liquidity. Many funds and institutions tend to reduce their positions at year-end, becoming more conservative. The number of aggressive stop-loss orders and trades decreases, trading volume drops significantly, and liquidity recedes accordingly. In this environment, it doesn't take much buying pressure to push prices higher, making it look like a "natural rebound."

This round of market movement fully fits this pattern. Bitcoin rebounded from near $80,000 to the mid-range, and now it has returned to the $80,000 to $90,000 zone. But from a technical perspective? It looks more like a "catching of breath after a large decline," far from a true bull reversal. Prices are still below several key moving averages—the 200-day moving average is still overhead, and the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are also trending downward. The overall trend has not been completely reversed.

The RSI is indeed improving, having risen above 50, indicating that selling pressure is easing and market sentiment is recovering. But this is still far from the "crazy buying" stage; it's just the market searching for a new equilibrium.

Lessons from history are worth noting: year-end and early-year rebounds usually don't last long. Many cycle-based analyses show that Bitcoin tends to perform strongly in late December or early January, but once February arrives with renewed capital activity, liquidity recovery, and cooled sentiment, prices tend to pull back. Therefore, for investors, the key is to clearly judge whether this is a "seasonal rebound" or a genuine trend reversal, otherwise it’s easy to chase highs and get caught in a trap during a market euphoria.