What exactly is cryptocurrency trading competing against?

People often say, "If I follow a certain expert’s operations, can I make stable profits?" Honestly, the crypto world isn’t that simple. Those who survive in this market have never relied on high win rates—truth be told, no one can predict what will happen in the next second. The real winners rely on a set of deeply ingrained "probability thinking."

Beautiful charts and logically consistent analyses pile up, at best just suggesting "based on historical probabilities, this market might go up." But "might" does not mean "will." Bitcoin, Ethereum, no matter how stable, the market won’t follow anyone’s script. Volatility is the norm of this industry; no one can change that.

See, what’s the real difference between ordinary retail investors and those consistently profitable traders? It’s not in technical indicators or information access—it's in a person’s usual behavior patterns. Is your goal to make every trade profitable, or to repeatedly perform those "long-term beneficial" operations? These two mindsets determine your final outcome.

The former always dreams of soaring to the sky, so they get inflated after making a profit and collapse after losing. The latter won’t lose their rhythm because of a small victory, nor will they be psychologically crushed by a loss.

**Breaking down trading into more detail, it really comes down to these three dimensions:**

**First, your method must have a positive edge**

You don’t need fancy techniques; simple and straightforward methods are enough, as long as they are beneficial to you in the long run. Big coins like $BTC and $ETH follow the same logic. There’s no complex trick that can beat the market; only consistent, positive-expectation behaviors can generate returns.

**Second, the frequency of execution must be sufficient**

Results from one or two trades mean little. Only through enough trading instances can you verify whether your probability assumptions are truly valid. Too many people are scared off by a single loss and never dare to trade again, wasting their probability advantage.

**Third, risk management is always the top priority**

As long as you’re still in this market, there’s still a chance to turn things around. But a single uncontrollable margin call could mean outright elimination. This is not alarmist; it’s the harsh reality.

**So what’s the hardest part?**

It’s not learning techniques, not finding information sources, nor researching complex trading systems—it's the psychological aspect. You need to accept that losses are normal, stick to your plan amid market noise, maintain discipline in adverse conditions, and not change your strategy due to short-term setbacks.

Observe those who truly make stable profits—they often seem quite "detached." They don’t chase highs or sell lows in a fiery frenzy; most of the time, they’re just waiting. Only when they have a genuine probability advantage will they take action. Sometimes, they might not make big moves for a month, but when they do, their win rate and risk-reward ratio align very tightly.

It’s like playing chess: a true master isn’t perfect in every move—rather, they avoid making worthless moves and patiently wait for favorable positions.

Ultimately, whoever can stay calm, act consistently, and maintain discipline in a market full of uncertainties will be the one who ultimately profits. This is a long-term contest of patience and self-discipline.