#预测市场 Prediction markets are truly an excellent window into market psychology! Look at the recent U.S. Federal Reserve Chair candidate, the data changes on Polymarket and Kalshi are textbook-level "market reversals"—Wash's probability soared from 7% to 48%, directly surpassing Haskett. What does this reflect? It shows that market participants are voting with real money, letting the data speak.

This is the real magic of prediction markets—they do not rely on public opinion trends but depend on incentive mechanisms. Every participant expresses their forecast in the most fundamental economic way: winning profits if correct, bearing costs if wrong. Because of this, prediction markets are often more accurate than traditional polls and expert opinions.

In the Web3 world, prediction markets are like a mirror, helping us see the true probability distribution rather than being fooled by noise. The emergence of decentralized prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allows anyone to participate in the price discovery process. This is the core value of decentralized finance—**making information flow more transparent and participation more democratic**.

In the future, prediction markets will become an increasingly important decision-making tool, spanning politics, sports, weather, and crypto assets—any field requiring probability judgment will find its presence. This transparent, incentive-compatible market mechanism is just the beginning of Web3 reshaping the information world.