2025 is coming to an end soon, and many people are beginning to look ahead to the 2026 crypto market: "Will there be a bull run next year? Which assets should I allocate?" But I want to first give everyone a cold shower: don't be fooled by the Federal Reserve's "policy fog"! The 2026 crypto market will present both opportunities and risks, and the risks may be more deadly than the opportunities. In this article today, I will analyze the Federal Reserve's policy trends to outline three core opportunities and two deadly risks for 2026, helping you avoid detours and make more money in the new year.

Let's start with the three core opportunities, each closely related to the Fed's policy. The first opportunity: RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) track. As the Fed cuts interest rates, traditional asset yields decline, and institutions will be more willing to tokenize traditional assets like government bonds and corporate bonds, using blockchain to improve trading efficiency and lower barriers. U.S. Bank has partnered with Galaxy to launch an on-chain liquidity fund, and Ondo Finance has committed $200 million in seed funding, indicating that the RWA track has gained institutional recognition. In 2026, with more institutions entering the market, the RWA track is likely to explode, and leading projects in this sector are worth paying close attention to.

The second opportunity: the "comeback" of the Ethereum ecosystem. Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio remains at a historically low level of 0.035, severely undervalued. In 2026, as the Federal Reserve's liquidity gradually loosens (though limited), coupled with Xiaomi pre-installing Web3 applications bringing in a massive new user base, Ethereum, as the world's largest decentralized settlement platform, is likely to see increased ecosystem activity and fee income. Moreover, if Ethereum staking ETFs are approved, it will attract more institutional funds, further driving up prices. I personally believe that breaking the 0.08 ETH/BTC ratio in 2026 is highly probable, and in optimistic scenarios, it could surge above 0.1.

The third opportunity: Solana and Sei ecosystems. U.S. Bank's on-chain fund will first launch on Solana at the beginning of 2026, and Xiaomi has partnered with Sei to pre-install Web3 applications based on Sei on new devices. These two chains will experience rapid growth due to institutional and major player support. Additionally, their fast transaction speeds and low fees make them more attractive to ordinary users, and leading projects within these ecosystems could generate outsized returns. However, be aware that these two chains will be highly volatile, so proper position sizing and risk management are essential—avoid heavy concentration bets.

Now, let's discuss two deadly risks, also closely related to the Fed's policy. The first risk: unexpected tightening of Fed policy. Although the market currently expects the Fed to cut rates once in 2026, if core PCE data continues to rebound and inflation pressures increase, the Fed may pause rate cuts or even resume hikes. If that happens, global liquidity will tighten sharply, risk assets will decline collectively, and the crypto market could crash. The Bitcoin crash in November 2025 was caused by inflation data exceeding expectations, shattering the rate cut fantasy—remember this lesson.

The second risk: market turbulence caused by internal disagreements within the Fed. Currently, Fed officials have significant divergence on the policy path for 2026: ten hawkish members advocate no rate cuts or even hikes, while one dovish member supports substantial rate cuts. This disagreement makes market sentiment extremely sensitive. Any change in policy signals could trigger sharp volatility in the crypto market. For example, if more officials turn hawkish in the next meeting, Bitcoin could drop below $60,000; if dovish, it could rebound quickly above $80,000. This uncertainty greatly increases trading difficulty and can lead to chasing rallies or panic selling.

Finally, my 2026 market allocation advice: adopt a "core + satellite" strategy. Allocate 60%-70% of your portfolio to core holdings (Bitcoin and Ethereum) to hedge against market volatility; allocate 30%-40% to satellite positions, focusing on leading projects in the RWA track, Solana, and Sei ecosystems. Also, closely monitor Fed policy developments and core PCE data. Once signs of tightening appear, reduce risk immediately.

The 2026 crypto market is destined to be a year of "cognitive testing." Only by understanding the Fed's policy logic can you seize opportunities and avoid losses. Follow me—throughout 2026, I will provide weekly market analysis and monthly opportunity and risk summaries to help you steadily profit in the crypto space.