#预测市场 The prediction market being manipulated is, frankly, just like the joke about the 2028 presidential election—looks scary, but in practice, it's not that simple.

The most heartbreaking part is this: AI can now fake public opinion, and traditional polls are no longer reliable. Prediction markets were originally a good supplement. But once these are tied to news reports, things get complicated. A big player dumps money to inflate prices, CNN follows suit with reports, and then you can't tell whether it's genuine market signals or human manipulation.

But there's an interesting detail here—true large-scale manipulation of prediction markets is very expensive and hard to sustain. The case of Romney's price surge in 2012 was quickly pulled back by arbitrage trading. Only in markets with very low liquidity does manipulation become easier.

So the key isn't whether manipulation is possible, but the information ecosystem. Even if the actual impact of manipulation isn't significant, just the concern can shake people's trust in the fairness of elections. That's the real issue. In my opinion, we should focus on monitoring active trading markets, controlling public opinion reports, and increasing transparency. Make prediction markets truly resilient tools, rather than gateways for chaos.