There is a key moment at 3 a.m. tomorrow: the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Don't underestimate this document; in previous instances when important data was released, Bitcoin volatility surged by an average of over 300%, and this time could be even more intense.

What is the current situation? Federal Reserve officials have halted rate cuts, but their views on inflation and economic outlook vary greatly. These minutes are like a mirror, reflecting how much disagreement there really is within the committee.

Why pay attention? The reasoning is simple. Disagreement means uncertainty. The market fears most is not knowing what the central bank will do next. If the minutes show a lack of consensus within the Fed about future policy, investors may panic because they can't see a clear direction, often leading to sharp sell-offs. Additionally, the wording of the minutes will reveal whether the pause is a short-term observation or a long-term policy— the former could mean a quick restart of rate cuts, while the latter indicates continued tight liquidity, which is bearish for the crypto market.

Adding the time factor, at 3 a.m., the Asian markets are just entering their active phase, and Western institutions haven't finished their day, so any unexpected information could easily trigger a global chain reaction, increasing volatility.

The market will be closely watching these three aspects:

**Inflation outlook** — If more officials are worried about a rebound in inflation, expectations for rate cuts will be delayed, the dollar will strengthen, and Bitcoin will face pressure.

**Recession risk** — If officials believe the risk of recession is rising, the market will start betting on earlier rate cuts, which benefits risk assets.

**The real reason for the pause** — Is it to observe more data before making decisions, or a firm stance to fight inflation long-term? The former is cautious waiting, the latter is a strong position.

Personally, I lean toward thinking this set of minutes will be somewhat hawkish. Recent inflation data has not been optimistic, and the Fed needs to continue demonstrating a tough stance to stabilize market expectations. If that’s the case, it will definitely be unfavorable for Bitcoin in the short term— but it also presents an opportunity for institutions to enter the market. At 3 a.m., the market will speak.