Looking at ONT's recent performance, it surged 17% within 24 hours, which initially seems quite impressive. But the more I look, the more uneasy I feel.
Trading volume has shrunk to only 7.7% of its peak, which says a lot. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are starting to turn downward, and the MACD histogram has also turned negative. The short-term correction pressures are coming one after another, clearly indicating that momentum is waning.
The current position is particularly awkward. Can the price hold steady above the 0.07 level? If not, even without much volume, it wouldn't be surprising to see a pullback to 0.065 or even lower. What's the worst-case scenario? Profit-taking floods out, and the price drops straight back to the starting point.
Of course, on the flip side, if there's enough turnover here and a strong breakout above 0.075, the upside space could open up. But right now, the risk-to-reward ratio is unclear, and there are too many variables.
So my decision is to stay put. Position management comes first; no chasing the rally regardless. Wait for the market to give a clear signal—either it stabilizes around 0.062-0.065, and I consider cautiously entering long; or it decisively breaks 0.075 with volume, and I follow through. At this stage, trading is essentially gambling.
**Conclusion: Wait and see** — after a sharp rise with decreasing volume and weakening momentum, the trend hasn't been confirmed, and the risks are in front of us. Rather than betting on a wrong move, it's better to hold back for now.
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CryptoNomics
· 6h ago
honestly the volume collapse alone screams divergence here. 7.7% of peak volume? that's statistically significant at any reasonable confidence interval. your thesis on waiting for either 0.062-0.065 support or a volume-confirmed breakout above 0.075 is textbook risk management, but most retail traders won't have the discipline.
Reply0
LonelyAnchorman
· 6h ago
I've seen many cases of limit-up with decreasing volume, and they all end up backfiring. This time, ONT is just like that wave last year; the trading volume simply can't hold up.
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GasDevourer
· 7h ago
A 17% increase on lower volume, I know this routine too well, next is the dump play.
Looking at ONT's recent performance, it surged 17% within 24 hours, which initially seems quite impressive. But the more I look, the more uneasy I feel.
Trading volume has shrunk to only 7.7% of its peak, which says a lot. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are starting to turn downward, and the MACD histogram has also turned negative. The short-term correction pressures are coming one after another, clearly indicating that momentum is waning.
The current position is particularly awkward. Can the price hold steady above the 0.07 level? If not, even without much volume, it wouldn't be surprising to see a pullback to 0.065 or even lower. What's the worst-case scenario? Profit-taking floods out, and the price drops straight back to the starting point.
Of course, on the flip side, if there's enough turnover here and a strong breakout above 0.075, the upside space could open up. But right now, the risk-to-reward ratio is unclear, and there are too many variables.
So my decision is to stay put. Position management comes first; no chasing the rally regardless. Wait for the market to give a clear signal—either it stabilizes around 0.062-0.065, and I consider cautiously entering long; or it decisively breaks 0.075 with volume, and I follow through. At this stage, trading is essentially gambling.
**Conclusion: Wait and see** — after a sharp rise with decreasing volume and weakening momentum, the trend hasn't been confirmed, and the risks are in front of us. Rather than betting on a wrong move, it's better to hold back for now.