Looking at Bitcoin's performance over the past four years, if there's any pattern, it might be the cyclical nature that hits the hardest. Looking back at the historical ledger, in 2014 there was an 87% halving, in 2018 an 84% crash, and by 2022, although not as absolute, it still declined by 78%. This is not a coincidence; it seems more like a certain fateful repetition.

The current situation is actually a bit strange. Bitcoin's structure has reached the edge of a cliff, and this pattern somewhat resembles the situation before the last frenzy in 2021. If this four-year cycle script continues to play out, then this rally is likely to face a sharp correction before January 2026, targeting the liquidity-concentrated zone around $40,000.

Recently, in the market, derivatives pushed the price up to $93,000, looking quite formidable. But here's the problem—underlying spot trading can't keep up at all. This false fire lacks real support, and once liquidations start, a chain reaction is easy to trigger. Although the total crypto market cap still finds support near the long-term upward trend line of $2.9 trillion, if it can't hold the key level of $93,400 before the end of the year, the bearish divergence signal will be confirmed.

There's also a detail that's easy to overlook: Bitcoin has been struggling throughout the halving cycle's final stage, even 3 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. This indicates that the influx of new funds has long lost its enthusiasm.

In summary, extreme volatility can strike at any time, and the timing window for cycle turning is approaching. Mental preparation and risk management may be more important than anything else.