Prediction markets have now become a battleground for politics, with all kinds of capital trying to get involved 🔥

After reading this analysis, I realize that manipulating the market is not as simple as it seems— it requires a large amount of capital, and arbitrageurs can pull the price back at any moment. But what's the problem? Once liquidity is insufficient, prices can be nailed down! That’s the most terrifying part.

The hypothetical scenario in 2028 is truly astonishing. As soon as market prices surge, whether it’s genuine manipulation or fake, public opinion will explode—allegations of fabricated public sentiment, foreign interference, elite collusion. These accusations will overshadow all facts. Polls in the AI era are already corrupt, but if prediction markets also fall into chaos, we will really have no reliable signals.

So the key is not to ban prediction markets, but to keep them healthy—media should report on high-liquidity markets, platforms need to monitor abnormal trades, and policymakers must crack down on manipulation. Transparency is crucial; making order book data public allows us to see whether real funds are moving or if someone is playing tricks.

In short, the next round must focus on market liquidity and the logic of price fluctuations, otherwise prediction markets will become a cash machine for information warfare 💸