Recently, there has been a lot of bearish sentiment in the market—everyone is betting on a small rebound in 22, followed by Bitcoin slipping towards 50,000. Everywhere you look, people are waiting for a crash.

But my perspective is a bit different. The overall market structure feels similar to May 19, 2021—you can sense that kind of vibe. A large amount of institutional chips are stacked at high levels, tightly trapped, while there are no signs of a macro crisis emerging. The US stock market is also oscillating at high levels, repeatedly forming "door" shapes, constantly shaking out traders.

In such times, spot trading is more worth engaging in than futures contracts. Why? Because the profit potential of futures is too dependent on luck. If you really go all-in with futures, three months might just be a waste of effort, or even result in losses. But if a bull market truly arrives, the gains from a week's worth of market movement can’t be matched by three months of futures profits. Probability and timing are not on your side.

So, rather than chasing high-leverage gains with futures, it’s better to hold spot assets steadily. In this kind of market environment, stability is the key.