#比特币价格走势 Twelve years have passed, and this scene has finally returned.

Looking at the risk warnings from the seven major gold associations, I’m not surprised. Since that notice from the five ministries in 2013, I’ve been observing this cycle—policy hammering, market shocks, capital migration, and cyclical repeats. Each story is very similar, but the details keep upgrading.

Remember the end of 2013? Bitcoin dropped from over $1100 to $755, and we thought the game was over. But it was just the prelude. During the ICO ban in 2017, it fell from 4300 to 3000, and within a week, everyone’s sentiment collapsed, but then it turned around and hit 20,000. In 2021, miners shut down, and in May, it dropped from 50,000 to 35,000—at that time, it really felt like doomsday, but by November, it broke 68,000 again.

Interestingly, each time the "power" of policy weakens—not because regulation softens, but because the market structure has changed. Twelve years ago, domestic funds dominated pricing; now, Wall Street ETFs, institutional custody, and global consensus are the real anchors. Authorities can set the rules domestically, but they can’t change the global pricing power.

This time, the targeting of stablecoins and RWA indeed indicates that policies are becoming more refined and expanding their scope. But looking at the USDT premium discount, it shows someone is rushing to exit. The real question is: does anyone still really care? On Wall Street, institutions like Tesla, Grayscale, and BlackRock have already written their positions into their books.

Twelve years of game theory tell me one thing: storms change the course, they change who is sailing, but they cannot alter the overall trend. After each heavy blow, the market always finds a new exit. This time won’t be an exception—only, it depends on who can survive to reach that exit.

All the bad news is exhausted, or it’s just the night before the storm. It depends on whether you believe there are still people on the other side willing to take the risk.