History often has similarities. Going back to the market rally after the 2020 pandemic shock—during the March crash, gold climbed from $1450 to $2075, and silver surged from $12 to $29. What about BTC during the same period? It repeatedly confirmed between $9000 and $12000, taking a full 5 months to consolidate.

The turning point came in August. After the precious metals peaked, funds began to shift significantly. From August 2020 to May 2021, BTC surged from $12,000 all the way to $64,800, an increase of nearly 5.5 times.

Now, comparing to the current situation: gold has already hit a new high of $4550, and silver has sharply risen to $80. And BTC? Still consolidating in a sideways range. On the surface, it looks very similar to the past, but the driving force behind this round is clearly different—The Federal Reserve has started a rate cut cycle, banking liquidity policies are being adjusted, the regulatory framework for crypto assets is gradually becoming clearer, positive signals are being released at the policy level, the hype around altcoin ETFs continues, and major institutions are fully opening their channels for deployment.

The intensity of these catalysts exceeds any previous cycle in history. The early rise of precious metals is not a bad sign; rather, it is a precursor to a shift in market sentiment. Historical experience tells us that it has always served as a leading indicator.

If the pattern repeats, BTC will not rush to surge. It will wait for the current rise in precious metals to pause and for the market to confirm the rotation of funds before taking action.