This wave of market activity is quite interesting. At this year-end juncture, the market has fallen into an extreme liquidity vacuum, with panic sentiment reaching its highest point of the year (23). From a technical perspective, both BTC and ETH's daily MACD are showing bullish divergences, but don't get too excited too early— the trend hasn't truly reversed yet, and moving average resistance remains firmly in place.

The on-chain fundamentals are even more telling. On BTC, large holders and whales are watching cautiously, and exchanges are showing signs of inflow, indicating some are bottom-fishing. However, ETH is having a tough time; large holders are reducing their holdings, and exchanges are still experiencing net outflows, showing dual pressure and weak performance.

Institutional actions also reveal insights. ETF outflows continue, which may look alarming, but a closer analysis suggests this is routine end-of-year rebalancing, not a sign of structural bearishness.

The risk points are here: liquidation data shows massive orders stacked below $85,000 for BTC and below $2,900 for ETH. While short-term downside space is limited, the risk of a waterfall decline should be watched carefully.

From a tactical perspective, extreme panic combined with bottom divergence resonance indeed suggests some medium-term allocation value. The key is whether BTC can break through $88,000 and ETH can surpass $3,000—these two resistance levels. If BTC holds above $85,000 and ETH stays above $2,800, coupled with the liquidity rebound and rate cut expectations at the beginning of 2026, a trend reversal window may open in early January.