The market attracts our attention every day—fluctuations on the charts, overwhelming news, continuous data streams. We immerse ourselves in technical analysis, study fundamentals, and delve into various complex models, trying to find the winning formula in this information war. But upon reflection, we realize a painful truth: truly effective trading rules are often surprisingly simple.

Buying low and selling high may sound like common sense, but it is the most fundamental truth. Cutting losses to let profits run is also well-known. These principles are not mysterious in themselves—what makes them difficult is that when faced with real-time fluctuating prices, that calmness often disappears. Greed and fear take turns, sometimes chasing rallies, sometimes trying to buy the dip, often ending up buying high and selling low.

Why are simple things the most effective? Because they are the essence distilled from the logic of complex systems. Just as music’s countless variations rely on seven notes; countless chess positions follow basic attack and defense principles; the light and shadow in this world are fundamentally electromagnetic wave oscillations. The trading market is the same—prices wander randomly around value, emotions fluctuate cyclically, and risk and reward always come in pairs.

Some have looked back at a century of market data and found that simple trend-following strategies outperform complex quantitative models in the long run. Others have achieved more stable returns through strict asset allocation and rebalancing, rather than chasing hot trends. What does this tell us? It shows that the laws never disappear—just like tides are forever governed by the moon’s gravity, no matter how turbulent the surface waves.

ETH’s volatility also follows the same logic. The key is whether you can stick to that simple discipline amid greed and panic—that’s the hardest part.