Before the dust settles on the appointment of the Federal Reserve Chair, the market is betting on a deep shift in monetary policy.

**How much room for imagination does the rate cut cycle give to Bitcoin?**

If the new Fed Chair leans towards easing policies, the federal funds rate could fall below 3%. History offers lessons: during the last significant rate cut cycle, Bitcoin's price surged over 500%. Currently, traders are already positioning themselves in advance, with some voices suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $150,000 within the year.

But the key is not just the numbers—it's also about the political ecosystem of the Federal Reserve itself.

**The battle between US dollar credibility and power balance**

Once the highest authorities start pressuring the independence of the central bank, confidence in the dollar on international markets could waver. This is not an exaggeration—when global investors begin to doubt the neutrality and stability of the dollar, they will seek alternatives. Bitcoin, as a store of value without state backing, perfectly fills this gap. Trillions of dollars in safe-haven capital inflows are not a fantasy but a logical deduction.

**How to operate practically?**

Three signals are worth paying close attention to: the actual rate cut magnitude at the Fed meeting, the latest attitudes of political leaders towards the central bank, and interactions between key decision-makers and the crypto industry.

In terms of capital allocation, consider this approach—use 30% in Bitcoin ETFs to build a basic defense line, allocate 20% to high-volatility small-cap coins to capture liquidity windows, and keep the remaining cash flexible to respond to emergencies. Market sentiment can change quickly, but those with clear logic often survive longer.

The key is to stay calm and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations.