## Summary

The following are key upcoming events that could have the greatest impact on the cryptocurrency industry:

1. **MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Risk (December 31, 2025)** – The expiration of a Polymarket contract may signal systemic risk, involving MSTR's holdings of 650,000 BTC.

2. **US CPI Inflation Data (January 13, 2026)** – Inflation indicators could alter market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, affecting cryptocurrencies' appeal as risk assets.

3. **Federal Reserve Rate Decision (January 28, 2026)** – 77% probability that rates will remain unchanged; tightening policies may limit liquidity in the crypto market.

4. **SEC Crypto ETF Application Review Deadline (March 27, 2026)** – Final decisions on 91 applications could introduce institutional investment inflows or cause delays.

5. **Quantum Computing Threat (March 8, 2028)** – Long-term risk of cryptographic cracking, prompting upgrades to encryption protocols to defend against quantum attacks.

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## Details

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Risk (December 31, 2025)

**Overview:** The prediction contract on Polymarket regarding MicroStrategy (MSTR)'s Bitcoin sale is nearing expiration. The company holds over 650,000 BTC (approximately$57 worth about $88K one billion dollars) at current prices. Forced sales could trigger market supply shortages.

**Significance:** Even partial sales could disrupt the market, as MSTR acts as a leverage point for Bitcoin to some extent. The current probability of sale is low (contract value around $0.009), but systemic risk remains if Bitcoin's price falls below a certain level of mNAV.

US CPI Inflation Data (January 13, 2026)

**Overview:** The January CPI report will influence Federal Reserve monetary policy. If core inflation exceeds expectations, rate hikes may be avoided, putting pressure on the crypto market.

**Significance:** Since cryptocurrencies are closely linked to overall market liquidity, higher inflation could trigger short-term volatility. Pay attention to Bitcoin's reaction to deviations from expectations (market expects 3.1% annual growth).

Federal Reserve Meeting (January 28, 2026)

**Overview:** There is a 77% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, with 7 members opposing rate cuts. High inflation and a strong employment market support this stance.

**Significance:** Maintaining high rates long-term could reduce the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as risk assets. The possibility of a dovish policy is small but could improve market sentiment. Watch for comments from Chair Powell after the meeting.

SEC Crypto ETF Application Review Deadline (March 27, 2026)

**Overview:** The SEC needs to decide on 91 crypto ETF applications, including some involving altcoins. According to Galaxy Digital, only 12 tokens meet criteria for expedited review (e.g., SOL, XRP, ADA).

**Significance:** Approval could attract billions of dollars into altcoins, while rejection may slow institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Key indicators include ETH/BTC ratio and ETF fund inflows.

Quantum Computing Threat (March 8, 2028)

**Overview:** Analysts warn that by 2028, quantum processors could crack Bitcoin's encryption, especially wallets that reuse addresses.

**Significance:** Although a long-term risk, it prompts upgrades to cryptographic protocols for quantum resistance, such as introducing Taproot. Long-term investors should monitor wallet security and protocol updates.

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## Conclusion

**Most significant event:** The Federal Reserve meeting on January 28, 2026, has a direct impact, as rate decisions directly relate to global liquidity and the risk-reward profile of crypto assets. Monitoring Bitcoin's response to Fed statements and CPI data can help grasp market direction. Despite systemic risks (MSTR) and quantum computing , the primary drivers in Q1 2026 will remain macroeconomic policies. In the short term, markets may perform neutrally with a slight bullish or bearish bias, but ETF approvals and technological upgrades could serve as positive catalysts.